After the calendar first turned to June, both the Phillies and Astros found themselves looking up in the standings from second place in their respective divisions. Philadelphia and Houston start their yearly series against one another, but both clubs are still striving to compete for the World Series, and their last shot for the league’s crown came against each other back in 2022.
It’s now three weeks later, and both teams are at the top of the standings – two of the best clubs in the game, ready to prove their mettle against the best of the best. The Astros are barely above .500 in April and May, but have turned on the jets in June – going 14-6 while not dropping a single series, and only losing back-to-back games once. The Phillies, on the other hand, are the exact opposite.
After a dominant May, Philly has scuttled thus far in June. They sit at 11-9 so far this month, even after their series victory over the New York Mets to retake the National League East lead. They started the month losing four series in a row, even being swept by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, they’ve won four straight, taking down three strong teams in the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Mets.
It’s officially the dog days of summer, and just like the weather, the schedule is heating up. Let’s dive into the pitching match-ups and key players to watch as the Phillies look to win the regular season series versus the Astros for the third season in a row – something they haven’t accomplished since 1979-1981.
Game 1: Ranger Suárez (6-1, 2.20 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09 ERA)
Most eyes around the league will likely be on Monday’s game, as it’s a battle of left-handed hurlers who are both free agents-to-be. Suárez has been incredible – if you take out his first outing of the season, he’s made eight starts with an ERA of 1.17! His overall 2.20 would be tied for No. 6 in the majors, if he had enough innings to qualify.
In Ranger’s only regular season appearance against the ‘Stros, he only lasted three innings, surrendering six earned runs on seven hits (3 HR) and two walks. In that 2022 World Series, however, he looked like his normal dominant self. He made two appearances (one start, one relief) and pitched 5.2 innings, allowing just four hits and 1 walk, and no runs while striking out five.
Valdez, on the other hand, has been great against Philly regardless of when the game is played. He has two regular-season starts and has pitched very well in both (12 IP, 13 Ks, 2.25 ERA). His two World Series starts were stellar – going six or more innings, allowing just one earned run, and striking out nine Phillies hitters in each. Framber has held the Phillies to a .203/.250/.316 slash line in his career – pure filth.
Houston has won Valdez’s last eight starts. The 31-year-old has gone 7-0 with a 2.13 ERA over that stretch. Tonight’s matchup should be a classic pitchers’ duel, the way these two have performed lately.
Kyle Schwarber does have two home runs off Valdez despite hitting .214 against him, and he only has five regular-season hits in Houston – all have left the yard. The red-hot Edmundo Sosa is also 2-for-7 against Framber with two doubles. Keep an eye on both men tonight. One thing of note: The Phillies are 14th in slugging percentage against left-handed starters (.383). The Astros? Try first with a .510 – they’ll be hunting Monday night.
Game 2: Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. Colton Gordon (2-1, 4.51 ERA)
Wheeler has pitched like fans have come to expect from the perennial Cy Young Award contender – and he’s only gotten stronger as the season goes on. Wheeler had one rough start in April, leaving him with a 3.79 ERA on the month. Since then, 2.25 in May, and a 1.06 so far in his three June starts. The right-hander has been worth every penny of that lucrative extension, and the team is making sure he stays comfortable. The Phillies switched their rotation order around, partly to split up their left-handed starters, but also to keep Wheeler on regular rest – something he heavily prefers (2.98 ERA on regular rest, 3.60 ERA with additional rest).
Zack has allowed an uncharacteristic .270 average vs. Houston’s hitters, but has limited them to a .405 slugging percentage, heavily inflated by newcomer Christian Walker. Wheels has pitched well against the Astros in the regular season (12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA) but did struggle to the tune of a 5.23 ERA over two starts in the 2022 World Series.
Colton Gordon is a rookie for Houston, making just his eighth career start. He has failed to blank a team, so far, and only has one start allowing a single run. He has been better as of late; however, his ERA in May (4 starts) was 5.95. In his three June outings, he’s pitched to a 2.81 ERA. The big worry for Gordon is that he’s allowed eight home runs so far, a trend that could likely continue if this past weekend’s offensive breakout from the Phillies is any sort of predictor.
Game 3: Cristopher Sánchez (6-2, 2.87 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.88 ERA)
Despite being on their respective teams when the clubs met in the championship back in 2022, neither man made an appearance in that series. Since that year, both guys have turned up their performances in a big way. Sánchez’s breakout last season earned him a lengthy extension and is widely considered one of the better left-handed pitchers in the National League. Brown went from mostly a reliever in 2022 to a back-end guy in 2023, a middle of the rotation arm last season, and now leads the American League with a minuscule 1.88 ERA.
Philadelphia hasn’t seen this version of Brown, who’s only appearance against the Phillies was a 2.1 inning, scoreless relief appearance back in 2022. The Phillies currently on the roster who faced him back then (Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott) are a combined 0-for-3 against the right-hander. Brown did face Max Kepler a few times during their time in the same division, and the left-hander went 2-for-7 off him – nothing stellar, but this lineup will mostly be relying on scouting reports and data against the six-foot-two right-hander amid his breakout campaign.
Since these teams only face each other for one series a season, and he didn’t pitch in the World Series, Houston should also have barely any info available in-house on Sánchez. The six-foot-six left-hander has only faced three hitters on the Astros’ active roster, and none of those appearances came while they wore a Houston uniform. Luis Guillorme is 1-for-3 vs. Cristopher from his time with the Mets, and Isaac Paredes is 4-for-5 against him from his time in Tampa Bay.
Christian Walker is 0-for-5, with a walk. Not much to go on. Sánchez has a little period of struggle in May, making him appear pedestrian even for a moment. In June, he had a stellar 1.93 ERA over 28.0 innings.
Battle of division leaders, a rematch of a not-so-forgotten World Series, regular season revenge – whatever you want to call it, you need to keep your eyes glued on this series. On paper, this match-up of playoff hopefuls is as good as baseball gets.
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
